Runoff rundown

What we know about the August 28 elections

This year already showed signs of being a landmark year in Oklahoma politics, based on the unusually high numbers of open seats, candidates filing for office, and challenges to incumbents. Now following eventful June primaries, we know for certain that this is one of Oklahoma’s most interesting election years in a long time. As we approach runoff elections on Aug. 28, here are some trends to watch.

We’re seeing a big surge in electoral participation. Concerns over underfunding of public education and other core services, the drama of two special sessions, and this spring’s teacher walkout helped shake up longstanding patterns of electoral indifference.

There were 442 legislative candidates on the ballot this year—a 24 percent increase from 2016 and a massive 67 percent increase from 2014. More candidates and more contested elections, combined with widespread interest in the medical marijuana state question, contributed to historic June primary turnout—surpassing both the 2014 general election and the 2016 Presidential primary.

There is no doubt that turnout for August’s runoff elections will fall compared to June. In the past two election cycles, turnout for the runoffs was down over 30 percent from the initial primary. To the extent that June turnout was boosted by strong interest in State Question 788, this year’s runoff drop-off could be even greater.

On the other hand, with an unprecedented number of runoffs this year, and with so many more Oklahomans focused on state politics, we will hopefully avoid a repeat of past elections where fewer than 20 percent of registered voters showed up.

Either way, there will be many new faces in office after November. The Legislature was already assured 33 new members due to incumbents hitting term limits or choosing not to run. In the primaries, five incumbent representatives and one incumbent senator were defeated outright, which means at least 39 new faces next session. If the anti-incumbent wave continues, that number could easily exceed 50.

Republican incumbents are facing the strongest challenges. The six Republican incumbents who were defeated on primary night is equal to the total number of incumbents of both parties who were defeated in all primaries in the previous 11 elections from 1994 to 2016.

By contrast, Democratic incumbents are facing little opposition this year. Only two Democratic lawmakers faced primary challenges, and both won handily. Thirteen Democratic legislators were reelected without an opponent, compared to just seven Republicans.

Republican incumbents who voted against tax increases are in the biggest danger. There were 16 members who voted no on all three major revenue bills this year. Of the 12 seeking re-election, two were defeated outright in June and seven were forced into a runoff. As it stands, at most six of the 34 Republican incumbents who supported tax increases could be defeated in the primaries, compared to nine of 12 who voted against tax increases.

Democrats have reasons to hope that their party will make gains in the Legislature, as well as possibly picking up one or more statewide offices. However, registration trends in Oklahoma increasingly favor Republicans —since 2010, Democratic registration has fallen by some 240,000 people, while Republicans have seen registration grow by 130,000.

For Democrats to make large gains in November, their partisans will have to come out in force, while Republicans either have to stay home or cross party lines. While Democrats are still likely to gain some seats, November may produce more of a ripple than a wave for Oklahoma Democrats.

David Blatt is Executive Director of Oklahoma Policy Institute, okpolicy.org.