It ain’t so, Joe
Governor race a foregone conclusion? (And does it even matter?)
Rep. Joe Dorman, Democratic candidate for Oklahoma governor
Joe Dorman is not—not—going to be Oklahoma’s next governor. But let’s play the home version of our game, just in case.
We’re entertaining the possibility because a Rasmussen Poll* conducted back in July indicated that the Democratic rep from Sand Springs was only five percentage points behind our twice-married governor who favors traditional marriage, Mary Fallin1.
“Seventy-six percent voted,” Fallin said at the time, “instead to define marriage as the union between one man and one woman. I was one of the many voters who cast my ballot in favor of traditional marriage.”
Even, apparently, if you need a couple of shots at it.
Let’s continue.
But don’t call for tickets to Dorman’s Inaugural Ball just yet, for Rasmussen is to credible polling2 what Papa John’s is to memorable pizza.
(Even still, Democrats found hope in the results, for if Rasmussen—a GOP favorite polling house—actually had the race this close, it might mean … the race was actually this close.)
Except, it wasn’t. For one thing, Rasmussen can be spectacularly wrong (once being off by 40 percent), so for it to have the race within 5 percent, there’s no guarantee its reps didn’t just repeatedly drunk-dial and survey Dorman’s immediate family. For another, other polls conducted during the same time (and since) show the twice-married governor who favors traditional marriage with a lead closer to double digits.3
More importantly, there’s something about Mary that voters in the state are starting not to like. Her favorability rating dropped 20 percent in the last few months4 in all polls, something her chief of staff, Alex Weintz5, got vertigo trying to spin.
“First of all, I think the easiest way to have an 80 percent approval rating is to sit in your office and do nothing but ribbon cuttings,” Weintz said. “And that is not who Mary is. It has energized our campaign and base to remind people they need to get involved.”
What great luck then.
The twice-married governor who favors traditional marriage might also have higher approval numbers had she not pursued an execution back in April that experts warned her was a disaster waiting to happen6, not performed a Double Back with Double Twist accepting/rejecting Common Core7 and on not taking/taking federal money to set up state ACA exchanges8, and not caved to the oil and gas industry on horizontal drilling rates9.
This new polling data also means Oklahoma Democrats, who actually still outnumber Republicans in the state10, no longer have to hide at family gatherings and be afraid to put out yard signs.
But, as Oklahoma Policy Institute executive director (and friend of the column) David Blatt reminds us: they better hurry, for soon, there will be no there there.
“Take a typical Oklahoma family,” he said. “Two generations ago, the grandparents registered Democrat and voted Democrat. A generation ago the parents still registered Democrat but voted Republican. Today they register and vote Republican.”
None of this is to say that Dorman can’t win—actually that’s exactly what it is to say—even if Michael Whelan, Tulsa County Democratic Chairman, sees a path to victory.
“To win in November,” Whelan told me, “Joe must succeed in making this election about education and Mary Fallin's numerous failures. If folks go to the polls to vote for the candidate who will fix public education in Oklahoma, Dorman will be our next Governor."
But Laura Belmonte, department head and professor of modern U.S. history at Oklahoma State University, says Dorman will need even more help.
“If the rapture happens on November 3, Dorman wins the gubernatorial race on November 4,” she said with a laugh. “You know that all Democrats are atheistic commies, so we’d be the only ones left.”
When pressed, Belmonte believes if the one million eligible registered voters actually vote, and if all the registered Dems turn out, and if there’s a serious scandal within the Fallin administration before Election Day, Dorman could win.
Yeah … and I could be named Grand Marshall at both Tulsa Christmas Parades.
Still, if all that happens—the voters, the scandal—and if Dorman cleans up at the October 2 debate in Stillwater and continues to raise money, we will have a Democratic governor in Oklahoma.
Hot damn!
Well … lukewarm damn, anyway.
"I'm an old-fashioned Democrat," Dorman said 11. “I have a higher rating from the NRA than her, I have an A-plus, and I think she's barely breaking an A at best.”
This is a selling point, a better grade from the NRA?
And …
I'm pro-life. I do believe that we need to provide opportunities for families to have the care that they need so they can have the chance to have a child and put that child up for adoption … I think I fall more in line with traditional Oklahoma values and what people want to see in their leadership at the capitol.
Here we go.
And …
Obamacare, Medicaid, Medicare, you name it – it’s all a mess.”12
Oh, for the love of the 632,000 uninsured Oklahomans, would you knock it off with this hackneyed conflation? Aside from not being true, it’s a lazy, pandering talking point.
It’s not leadership; it’s a bumper sticker.
If everything falls into place—everything— and he’s actually elected, Governor Joe Dorman will genuflect even more to the NRA, offer women no substantive change on reproductive rights13, give lip service to those without healthcare, and dish out daily doses of grandstanding, pablum, and hyperbole with all the alacrity of our twice-married governor who favors traditional marriage.
Oklahoma. Oy.
(1) Governor Mary Fallin's statement on same-sex marriage ruling
(2) Rasmussen: A pollster made for Fox News
(3) Oklahoma Governor: Fallin vs Dorman
(4) Governor Fallin approval rating down in new poll
(5) ARTICLE: FALLIN SHOULD BE DOING BETTER IN THE POLLS, POLITICAL WATCHERS SAY
(6) The 'Recipe for Failure' That Led to Oklahoma's Botched Execution
(7) Fallin gives up on Common Core
(8) Fallin, State applied for Affordable Care Act Grant
(9) Governor Mary Fallin Signs Bill Modifying Gross Production Tax Incentive
(10 Registered Republicans Increase in Oklahoma as Democrat Voters Decline
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